While looking at Ethiopia's big picture under Covid-19, we found that Covid-19 is one main factor of Ethiopia's death counts. It may cause problems in the food industry due to the increasing loss in the labor force. If the government cannot come out with efficient measures, the number of laborers will keep diminishing. At that time, the country will get low-quality food or not have enough food, which will result in an increase in the death count and the level of food insecurity.
Next, we explored the government measures dataset to see what Ethiopia's government has for the food insecurity problems. The government's top three most used measures are Limiting Public Gathering, Economic Measures, and Isolation and Quarantine Policies. We categorized these most frequently used measures as social distancing. As many countries continue to stop the spread of Covid-19, carrying out Limiting Public Gathering and Isolation and Quarantine Policies together will cause limited migratory labor opportunities and movement restrictions. These changes are likely to impact global food security.
Then, we would like to see how Covid-19 has influenced the economy and food in Ethiopia. We observed that the predictor "Natural Disaster and Disease Disbursement" significantly affects the level of food insecurity. We can predict the level of food insecurity in 2020, along with the other five predictors. Also, we believe that the number of people affected and the disbursement on COVID-19 is increasing by inspecting the COVID-19 and casualties related government policies.
Furthermore, from the linear model, we find the coefficient of the variable "Natural Disaster and Disease Disbursement" is -1.1174, which means the more disbursement on COVID-19, the less proportion of the population is categorized as undernourishment population. However, even though we are theoretically possible to predict food insecurity levels, it depends on the government disbursement distribution that is unknown and incomplete. And since the government did not carry out any policy on food security, we cannot get to the food insecurity level of 2020 right away.
Finally, We wanted to see what and how Covid-19 influenced citizens in Ethiopia; thus, we investigated Ethiopia's exposure risk score and found higher risk scores in the east area. Then, we looked into the connection between socio-economic vulnerability and the average total risk. The average socio-economic vulnerability score is calculated by the household level, housing type, food security, financial inclusion, and domestic violence. There are 11 regions and more than 600 small districts, so we generated a total of 30 samples from the low, medium, and high total risk scores. As a result, people who live in high socio-economic vulnerability score districts are more easily affected by Covid-19. In other words, Covid-19 mostly hurt people who get low household levels, inadequate housing types, serious food security, insufficient financial inclusion, and high domestic violence score.